The Ladder of Inference: How to Avoid Jumping to Conclusions
Is the story you're telling yourself in your head matching up with reality? What assumptions are you making about someone else's behavior or motives? Could you be operating from faulty assumptions? If you have found yourself confused by how someone else interpreted something you did or have found yourself eating your words, then you may want to climb the Ladder of Inference.
The Ladder of Inference was first put forward by organizational psychologist Chris Argyris and used by Peter Senge in The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization. It describes the thinking process we go through, usually unconsciously, to get from a fact to a decision or action (see Figure 1).
We all make assumptions, it's how we're hard-wired to efficiently process all the information we receive each day. By drawing on our past experiences, we find patterns, form mental models which then shape our worldview, and often make inferences as shortcuts (i.e. jump to conclusions) and act on those inferences before we back it up with facts. In today’s fast-moving business world, we’re under pressure to act quickly and often don’t give ourselves the space to check our assumptions or spend the time reasoning things through before moving into action. We, therefore, must acknowledge that our assumptions could be wrong, especially when we’re making assumptions about the intentions or actions of others (e.g. your boss not responding to your email, your spouse not taking out the garbage, etc.)
Some people may shortcut the ladder through a “reflexive loop” and use data that support their existing beliefs and ignore contradictory data—this can also be known as confirmation bias. We can make stories up in our head without checking with the other person, or don’t want to reverse a point we’ve made publically, allowing ego to get in the way instead of letting integrity shine.
When you hear that story playing in your head about another person and you find yourself making judgments about them or a situation, walking down the Ladder of Inference can help bring you back to reality (making sure to avoid the reflexive loop). Check-in on your assumptions and make the implicit explicit by using the ladder to explain how you came to your conclusions:
Here is what I am observing…
And this is what I think is relevant about that…
And I take that to mean…
And I assume that…
And I conclude that…
Which leads me to believe…
And here is what I plan to do about it…
What are your thoughts?
To get yourself moving down the ladder and overcome jumping to conclusions, first, STOP! Step back and start (re)considering your reasoning. Identify which rung you’re on and how you got there. Walk yourself down the ladder to make sure you’re working from facts. Ask different types of questions of yourself and others to obtain different details, views, and insights. Some of my favorite questions I ask myself are, “What else might be true?” or, “What am I missing?” Be aware of your limitations and how we all apply our own selective filters to any given situation. Then walk yourself back up the ladder using the right facts to reach the right conclusion. Understanding and practicing the Ladder of Inference can improve your critical thinking and help you avoid potentially sticky situations or putting your foot in your mouth.
Working with a coach can help you: 1) raise self-awareness so you know from which rung you may prefer to operate; 2) help you move down and up the Ladder of Inference; 3) learn how your personal biases may be impacting your relationships in both your work and personal life; and 4) create strategies to improve your effectiveness and performance.
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